The Athletic has conducted an annual Group of 5 reader survey four times now, and each year’s responses have had their own theme.
Three years ago, there was outrage over College Football Playoff access; two years ago, there was concern over transfers and NIL; last year’s responses featured a lot more conference pride.
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This year, that conference pride has hardened even more. But notably, the survey only garnered around 800 total responses after getting more than 1,500 in each of the previous three years. The move of UCF, Cincinnati and Houston to the Big 12 certainly shrunk the pool, as UCF fans especially liked to flood this poll. The number of AAC respondents fell by around 500 compared to last year. This year’s poll was also released in late July before major realignment, rather than early July right after it, perhaps another factor.
The Group of 5 sits in an unfamiliar position right now. The expanded College Football Playoff next year will be a boon for these conferences and teams. For the first time, this group of teams technically has the same postseason contention opportunity as everyone else. But at the same time, conference realignment hangs over the sport, and the transfer portal/NIL era has seen several top G5 players leave for bigger schools. Financially, the gap is growing.
But the Group of 5 still has plenty of interesting players and teams, and we wanted to know what you think about them. So let’s get into the results this year.
Who will get the Group of 5’s New Year’s Six spot this year?
Tulane: 28.3 percent
UTSA: 12.9 percent
SMU: 10.6 percent
Boise State: 9.3 percent
San Diego State: 7.2 percent
Appalachian State: 3.5 percent
Coastal Carolina: 2.9 percent
Troy: 2.7 percent
Fresno State: 2.6 percent
Memphis: 2.3 percent
Air Force: 2 percent
All others less than 2 percent
With Cincinnati and UCF gone, the NY6 spot feels wide open. Tulane got the plurality of votes to repeat after winning the AAC and Cotton Bowl last season. A year ago, Tulane received five votes out of the more than 1,850 responses to this question, so you never know what can happen.
What should we call the Group of 5 in the 12-team CFP era?
Group of 5: 46.1 percent
Mid-Majors: 27.2 percent
FBS conferences: 17.9 percent
Non-autonomous 5: 1.3 percent
All write-in options less than 1 percent
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AAC commissioner Mike Aresco wants to get rid of the G5 framing, and I’m sympathetic to the argument. To this point, nobody can really agree on what to do with it.
Will the 12-team CFP bring a bigger spotlight to the Group of 5?
Yes: 75 percent
No: 25 percent
Do you like when your team plays a midweek game?
No: 52.9 percent
Yes: 31.6 percent
No opinion: 15.5 percent
Do you wish your school was in a different Group of 5 conference?
No: 87.9 percent
Yes: 12.1 percent
Should the top 12-16 Group of 5 schools form their own football conference?
No: 75.3 percent
Yes: 24.7 percent
The “no” response is up to 75 percent this year from 65 percent last year. The expanding CFP coming next year seems to have ended the need for a G5-only playoff or merger.
Has the NIL/transfer portal era helped or hurt the Group of 5?
Depends on the school: 50.4 percent
Hurts G5: 35.1 percent
Helps G5: 9.4 percent
No difference: 5.1 percent
These numbers are very similar to last year’s on the same question.
Does conference realignment make you more or less interested in college sports?
No difference: 44 percent
Less: 33 percent
More: 23 percent
The “no difference” is slightly up from last year.
GO DEEPER
Answering your conference realignment Q's, from ACC's next steps to CFP
AAC (roughly 300 responses)
How happy are you with the AAC’s current membership of schools?
1: 10.2 percent (Not happy)
2: 16.2 percent
3: 36.3 percent
4: 28.7 percent
5: 8.6 percent (Very happy)
How would you rate commissioner Mike Aresco’s performance?
1: 3.6 percent (Poor job)
2: 10.9 percent
3: 26.8 percent
4: 36.4 percent
5: 22.2 percent (Great job)
How happy are you with the AAC’s TV situation?
1: 4.6 percent (Not happy)
2: 13.6 percent
3: 33.4 percent
4: 33.1 percent
5: 15.2 percent (Very happy)
Where would you rank the AAC among the G5 leagues?
1: 75.1 percent (Best league)
2: 14.8 percent
3: 6.2 percent
4: 2.6 percent
5: 1.3 percent (Worst league)
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Who will win the AAC this year?
Tulane: 43.9 percent
UTSA: 21.9 percent
SMU: 19.1 percent
Memphis: 5.2 percent
East Carolina: 1.9 percent
UAB: 1.6 percent
Navy: 1.6 percent
USF: 1.3 percent
FAU: 0.9 percent
North Texas: 0.6 percent
Rice: 0.6 percent
Tulsa: 0.6 percent
Charlotte: 0.3 percent
Temple: 0.3 percent
AAC opinion has fluctuated, likely because of all the movement with three schools departing and six more arriving. Two years ago, 63 percent of respondents rated their happiness with the league’s membership a 4 or 5. It dropped to 19.4 percent last year but bounced back up to 37.3 percent this year (again, with fewer voters). Aresco’s approval rating followed the same trajectory, now back up to 58.6 percent rating his job at a 4 or 5.
There’s more acceptance of the new AAC now than a year ago, as the reader comments illustrated:
“The AAC did a good job finding teams that want to be around. In general, there are still a couple of teams that want to move on but for the most part, it is a unified league that wants to compete together. This will allow for the AAC to remain the clear-cut top conference of the G5.”
“Biggest problem is there are no natural rivals for some of the schools.”
“Aresco has done a good job with the hand he’s been dealt. Programs have the visibility with the TV contract to grow and thrive. Just not enough money where the best want to stay.
“I get why he did it, but I think he added too many schools to replace the three who left.”
“Aresco may be the best commissioner in the sport. People like to dunk on him but he’s great at getting his message out there and pointing out the wrongs in the sport.”
AAC champ Tulane’s Cotton Bowl victory over USC helped ease the sting of losing Cincinnati, UCF and Houston. (Tim Heitman / USA Today)CUSA (Roughly 85 responses)
How happy are you with CUSA’s membership of schools? (Kennesaw State will join in 2024)
1: 35.3 percent (Not happy)
2: 17.6 percent
3: 36.5 percent
4: 8.2 percent
5: 2.4 percent (Very happy)
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If CUSA adds more schools in the future, who should it add? (Select all that apply)
Stephen F. Austin: 44 percent
Eastern Kentucky: 32.1 percent
Missouri State: 31 percent
Incarnate Word: 22.6 percent
McNeese State: 19 percent
Austin Peay: 19 percent
Tarleton State: 16.7 percent
Central Arkansas: 13.1 percent
(All write-in candidates got one vote)
How would you rate commissioner Judy MacLeod’s performance?
1: 29.1 percent (Poor job)
2: 20.9 percent
3: 34.9 percent
4: 11.6 percent
5: 3.5 percent (Great job)
How happy are you with CUSA’s TV situation?
1: 28.2 percent (Not happy)
2: 25.8 percent
3: 29.4 percent
4: 11.8 percent
5: 4.7 percent (Very happy)
Where would you rank CUSA among the G5?
1: 2.2 percent (Best league)
2: 7.7 percent
3: 22 percent
4: 28.6 percent
5: 39.6 percent (Worst league)
Who will win CUSA this year? (Sam Houston and Jacksonville State not eligible)
Liberty: 43.3 percent
WKU: 37.1 percent
UTEP: 9.3 percent
New Mexico State: 4.1 percent
Louisiana Tech: 4.1 percent
Middle Tennessee: 2.1 percent
FIU: 0 percent
The feelings on the league’s membership and the job of MacLeod remain the same as last year, but there is much more positivity around the new TV deal, which gets CUSA back on ESPN, including midweek games in October. In last year’s poll, 22.7 percent of voters rated the TV situation from 3-5. This year, that’s more than 45 percent.
In the question about potential additions, I kept the listed options largely regional and was surprised to see Stephen F. Austin took home the most votes. Perhaps that’s a product of the addition of rival Sam Houston to CUSA this year. My read on things has been that SFA likely doesn’t have the resources to make such a jump, but MacLeod told me last week they’d like to get to 12 members, and that will likely come from the pool of options here.
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Readers accept CUSA’s position and have looked for the positives:
“Difficult situation in 2021, but the league has made every correct move since.”
“Easily the worst conference in the country yet still boasts one of the best G5 teams this year in WKU.”
“The league has potential. Liberty just lost too much production from last year and an all-new coaching staff may mean a slow start. WKU has the far better QB and WRs. Chadwell will get it going but it may not be this year.”
“TV situation is much better starting this year but interested to see how all of the October midweek games affect teams and certainly fans. Midweek games ARE NOT for fans. It’s a conference and school advertising on an ESPN network for three hours.”
“WKU needs to get out of this conference ASAP.”
GO DEEPER
CUSA commissioner Judy MacLeod on expansion and the league's future
MAC (roughly 160 responses)
How happy are you with the MAC’s current membership of schools?
1: 0 percent (Not happy)
2: 3.1 percent
3: 16.4 percent
4: 33.3 percent
5: 47.2 percent (Very happy)
How would you rate commissioner Jon Steinbrecher’s performance?
1: 0 percent (Poor job)
2: 5.7 percent
3: 31 percent
4: 45.6 percent
5: 17.7 percent (Great job)
How happy are you with the MAC’s TV situation?
1: 2.6 percent (Not happy)
2: 12.8 percent
3: 38.5 percent
4: 33.3 percent
5: 12.8 percent (Very happy)
Should the MAC keep November midweek games?
Yes: 71.3 percent
No: 20.1 percent
No opinion: 8.5 percent
Where would you rank the MAC among the G5 leagues?
1: 6.7 percent (Best league)
2: 15.2 percent
3: 35.2 percent
4: 35.8 percent
5: 7.3 percent (Worst league)
Who will win the MAC this year?
Toledo: 44.9 percent
Ohio: 16 percent
Northern Illinois: 10.2 percent
Miami (Ohio): 7.2 percent
Eastern Michigan: 4.8 percent
Buffalo: 4.2 percent
Western Michigan: 3.6 percent
Central Michigan: 2.4 percent
Ball State: 1.8 percent
Bowling Green: 1.8 percent
Kent State: 1.2 percent
Akron: 0 percent
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There is a lot more MAC pride this year, with 80.5 percent of respondents rating membership a 4 or 5 and 63.3 percent doing the same for Steinbrecher’s approval rating. That’s up from 68.2 percent positive opinion on membership and 51 percent on Steinbrecher last year.
Interestingly, while only 31.6 percent of G5 fans said they like having a midweek game, 71.3 percent of MAC fans want to keep MACtion. Toledo is also a heavy favorite to win the MAC, after no team got more than 20 percent last year. Reader comments echoed these results:
“Feels like the last FBS (conference) playing College Football instead of Minor League Football.”
“MACtion games suck when it’s your team but they are great otherwise.”
“I wish the MAC could have added MTSU and WKU. But they have done a great job staying stable in an ever-evolving environment.”
“All the demographics are trending against the MAC for the future. I think we used to be equal to or better than the Sun Belt/CUSA but that’s no longer the case. I don’t like the midweek games but I know they aren’t going anywhere. More games are available for viewing than ever before, and that’s a good thing, And regarding NIL, while I’m in favor of the athletes getting paid, it stinks to know that we will just become a farm system for the big schools.”
“I shared a copy of your final edition of The Athletic 131 with Toledo Rockets Football which included Ohio U. being ranked above Toledo despite actual results of championship games — hoping that provides the bulletin board material to finally put together a complete season.”
(In my defense, Ohio didn’t have starting quarterback and MAC Player of the Year Kurtis Rourke in that MAC championship game.)
MAC leading rusher Carson Steele’s big 2022 campaign — and subsequent transfer to UCLA — represent both ends of MAC fans’ mixed emotions about the state of the conference. (Randy Sartin / USA Today)Mountain West (roughly 180 responses)
How happy are you with the Mountain West’s current membership of schools?
1: 0 percent (Not happy)
2: 6.6 percent
3: 25.8 percent
4: 46.7 percent
5: 20.9 percent (Very happy)
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If the Mountain West adds any schools in the future, who should it add? (Select all that apply.)
North Dakota State: 58.5 percent
Montana: 43.6 percent
UTEP: 39.4 percent
Montana State: 38.8 percent
South Dakota State: 37.8 percent
New Mexico State: 17.6 percent
Sacramento State: 14.4 percent
Weber State: 8.5 percent
Idaho: 9.6 percent
UC Davis: 2.1 percent
(All remaining write-in candidates got one vote)
How would you rate commissioner Gloria Nevarez’s performance thus far?
1: 1.6 percent (Poor job)
2: 3.3 percent
3: 43.7 percent
4: 36.6 percent
5: 14.8 percent (Great job)
How happy are you with the Mountain West’s TV situation?
1: 6 percent (Not happy)
2: 17.5 percent
3: 47.5 percent
4. 24.6 percent
5: 4.4 percent (Very happy)
Where would you rank the Mountain West among the G5 leagues?
1: 42.2 percent (Best league)
2: 37.5 percent
3: 14.1 percent
4: 6.3 percent
5: 0 percent (Worst league)
Who will win the Mountain West this year?
Boise State: 48.7 percent
San Diego State: 18.8 percent
Fresno State: 12.7 percent
Air Force: 10.7 percent
Colorado State: 2.5 percent
Wyoming: 2.5 percent
UNLV: 1.5 percent
Utah State: 1.5 percent
San Jose State: 1 percent
Hawaii: 0 percent
Nevada: 0 percent
New Mexico: 0 percent
No real changes in the Mountain West results compared to last year. Even Nevarez’s approval rating seven months into the job is nearly identical to former commissioner Craig Thompson’s at this time last year.
On the topic of potential expansion, North Dakota State is the clear favorite among Mountain West fans. Defending FCS national champion South Dakota State is behind several teams. I was surprised to see UTEP garner nearly 40 percent of votes as well. There are not many FBS teams in the footprint after the conference passed on going into Texas for UTSA, North Texas and others in 2021. Reader comments were mixed as well:
“Like other G5 leagues/schools I’m not sure where they go from here. The MW used to be so strong when it was formed. Hopefully some Pac12 schools and select MW schools can keep western football somewhat relevant.”
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“The FOX contract has reduced the amount of weeknight and late night games and that is HUGE for Boise State.”
“I really hope the conference has some kind of action plan ready when San Diego State does eventually leave. They better not act blindsided or stand pat. Adding a Texas market and a dominant football program like North Dakota State would ease the pain a little.”
“The 12-team playoff will be very helpful. The chance of getting a team in every year will be alluring for fans of the MWC. The TV is better with the Fox contract than ESPN because kickoff times have slightly improved for fans attending but Fox occasionally does remote broadcasts which are frankly embarrassing. My team, Colorado State, is recruiting out of the high school ranks at historic levels but I can’t help but wonder if they will be able to hold on to those players in two years with NIL/portal.”
“There are a lot of things I don’t love about the current reputation of the Mountain West, but as a fan of a school that belongs at this level, there’s certainly nowhere better to be. The western half of the country doesn’t get a lot of choice, and I think the schools mostly fit well together as is. If the league expands, I’d rather see it stay within the relative footprint rather than go all the way to Texas again.
If San Diego State departs for the Power 5, the Mountain West would like to stay regional in its search for new members. (Cary Edmondson / USA Today)Sun Belt (roughly 220 responses)
How happy are you with the Sun Belt’s current membership of schools?
1: 0.9 percent (Not happy)
2: 1.8 percent
3: 8.5 percent
4: 28.1 percent
5: 60.7 percent (Very happy)
How would you rate commissioner Keith Gill’s performance?
1: 0 percent (Poor job)
2: 1.8 percent
3: 10 percent
4: 30.3 percent
5: 57.9 percent (Great job)
How happy are you with the Sun Belt’s TV situation?
1: 3.2 percent (Not happy)
2: 11.4 percent
3: 28.6 percent
4: 35.5 percent
5: 21.4 percent (Very happy)
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Where would you rank the Sun Belt among the G5 leagues?
1: 60.8 percent (Best league)
2: 24.2 percent
3: 10.1 percent
4: 4 percent
5: 0.9 percent (Worst league)
Who will win the Sun Belt this year? (James Madison not eligible)
Troy: 27.8 percent
Appalachian State: 22.6 percent
South Alabama: 13.5 percent
Coastal Carolina: 13 percent
Marshall: 8.7 percent
Georgia Southern: 3.9 percent
Louisiana: 2.6 percent
Southern Miss: 2.6 percent
Old Dominion: 2.2 percent
Texas State: 1.7 percent
Georgia State: 1.3 percent
Arkansas State: 0 percent
ULM: 0 percent
Sun Belt fans continue to feel themselves. A year ago, there was a massive boost in membership approval, Gill’s approval and belief this was the best G5 conference following the additions of James Madison, Marshall, Southern Miss and Old Dominion. Gill’s approval jumped from 44.7 percent giving him the top rating of a 5 last year to 57.9 percent this year. Belief that this is the No. 1 G5 league also jumped from 39.8 percent last year to 60.8 percent this year.
The decision to add football-loving schools with regional ties and rivalries continues to be a massive success for Sun Belt fans:
“I think the Sun Belt is a great conference. I appreciate the parity and regional rivalries. This is how college football should be.”
“Wish that there was more attention given to the league by national media.”
“I wish ESPN and Sun Belt removed the Tuesday/Wednesday games. It hurts the fans who actually care about the games. Fans would attend more games if it were on Saturday as opposed to midweek. It makes SBC and the other G5 conferences as lesser football.”
“The Sun Belt and the AAC need to merge (though that won’t happen because there are too many mouths to feed). Or merge — and form a new conference with the best teams. Or create a weekend near the end of the week where the best teams are facing each other (based on conference standings).”
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“Played realignment right, the Sun Belt conference has the best fan bases throughout the G5. Facebook groups, meet-ups, and pregames all coordinated no matter the school. Strong geographical ties that form true rivalries are what make this conference thrive.”
(Top photo: Chris Graythen / Getty Images)
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